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Emerging Economies, Risk and Development, and Intelligent TechnologyProceedings of the 5th International Conference on Risk Anal
M00002425
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RACR is a series of biennial international conferences on risk analysis, crisis response, and disaster prevention for specialists and stakeholders. RACR-2015, held June 1-3, 2015 in Tangier, Morocco, was the fifth conference in this series, following the successful RACR-2007 in Shanghai (China), RACR-2009 in Beijing (China), RACR-2011 in Laredo (USA) and RACR-2013 in Istanbul (Turkey).
To raise risk awareness within small countries and emerging economies, RACR-2015 chose the following theme: Emerging Economies, Risk and Development, and Intelligent Technology. This volume is composed of 77 high-quality papers submitted to RACR-2015 that have passed a rigorous peer review process, reflecting state-of-the-art research from around the world. The contributions cover almost all risk fields such as risk identification, risk assessment, risk evaluation and risk management. The conference topics included economic risk, catastrophic accidents, debt crisis, public health, uncertainty plague, threats to social safety, humanitarian logistics, terrorism events, managing risk for development, emerging risk, risk evaluation modeling, energy and resources, multi-criteria risk assessment, food and feed safety, risk radar, global climate change, internet of intelligences, Islamic banking, and natural disasters among others.
Table of Contents
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Organization
A paradigm to construct Internet of intelligences for risk assessment
C. Huang
Research on the urban emergency shelter system planning: A case study of Guangzhou, China
G. Zhai, W. Chen, W. Jin & Y. Xie
Modeling causality of financial investment decisions in R&D on economic yields
F. James
Islamic banking and the limits of interest practices: Evidences from bootstrapping methodology
B. Nesrin, C. Ikram, E. Mohammad & L. Abdelouahid
Credit evaluation for SEMs in inventory financing mode based on combination weighting method
H. Zhu, M. Zhang & H. Zhang
The measure of data aggregation bias for crop production risk assessment
Q. Zhang, Y. Li, K. Wang & W. Sun
The acceptable risk criteria of mining industry in China
S. Zhang, C. Wu, X. Shi, X. Li & S. Yao
Enterprise legal risk management implementation in China—a case study
X. Gao, D. Lu & Y. Cui
Simulation of the policy effect of technological SMEs loan risk compensation based on SD model
X. Liu, M. Zhang & L. Song
Trust in the government in emergency management—from the perspective of procedural justice
X. Su & P. Yang
Credit evaluation for technological SMEs in inventory financing mode based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
Y. Sun, M. Zhang & H. Zhang
Credit risk under two-track system of rural finance in China
L. Zhao, B. Song, S. Zhao & Q. Zhang
Comparison of two algorithms for retrieving land surface temperature from Landsat-8 TIRS data
B. Wei & S. Yin
Health risk assessment of exposure to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in garden vegetables in Southern Jiangsu, China
H. Cao, Q. Li & S. Chao
Study on the optimal layout of GIS-based fire station points in Jiaonan of Qingdao City
P. Chen, J. Zhang, L. Zhang & Y. Sun
The utility assessment of rainstorm early warning based on Monte-Carlo simulation: A case study of Beijing
C. Niu, H. Zhao, F. Wang, T. Zhang, H. Hu & W. Cao
Inventory mapping of landslides caused by the 2013 Lushan, China Mw 6.6 earthquake
C. Xu
Analysis of desertification feature of typical steppe grassland based on fractal theory: A case study of Xilin GOL League
C. Li, R. Hu, S. Yin, Y. Bao & Y. Li
Natural hazards crisis: Disaster prediction, mitigation and prevention
D. Liu, G. Liu, F. Wang & Z. Chen
Eutrophication risk assessment: A hybrid cloud approach
D. Liu, D. Wang, Y. Wang, L. Wang & L. Zhang
Simulating the adaptive measures of soybean production to climate change in China: Based on cross-scale model coupling
D. Fan, Q. Ding, Z. Tian, L. Sun & F. Guenther
A study in recognizing weather-yield risk relationship of paddy planting in Hunan Province by data mining technology
E. Chen & S. Zhao
The return period analysis of dust storm disaster based on joint distribution of three hazards
J. Feng & N. Li
Study on the risk of probable maximum storm surge disaster in coastal area of Tianjin
Z. Gao, S. Wu, M. Dong, J. Zhang, M. Chen & Y. Qi
An exit optimization modeling within evacuation simulation statistics in dense urban open space
G. Zhao, Y. Zhao, Q. Zhang & H. Wang
Research of cigarette sales quantity forecast based on multiple linear regression model
H. Zhang, Y. Chen & T. Li
Some preliminary results on children’s earthquake risk perception of a highly seismic region of Mexico
S.-R. Jaime, S.-R. Galdino & G. Tatiana
The integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster on maize production in China
J. Zhao & Q. Zhang
Study on extreme risk measurement of vegetable oil futures market using the ARMA-GARCH approach
G. Li & Z. Li
Earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation based on fuzzy logic and Shannon’s entropy integrated information value models in the 2013 Minxian, China earthquake-affected area
L. Shen, L. Liu, J. Wang & C. Xu
Risk identification for children’s sport suits based on product lifecycle
X. Liu, W. Tang & Y. Yang
Fuzzy risk assessment of entropy-weight coefficient method applied in large public building fires
J. Luo & J. Sun
Evaluation of Fire Brigade Disasters Response Capacity by Analytical Hierarchy Process in Yunnan Province
M. Fan, L. He, B. Liu, S. Chen & H. Li
Study on the characteristics variation of deep ocean currents in China’s offshore based on China Ocean Reanalysis
L. Xu, J. Yang, G. Wang & S. Xing
Research on the evaluation system of construction risks based on catastrophe progression method
Q. Wu, T. Zhang & Y. Zong
Efficiency evaluation of financial support on the biological medicine industry in China based on DEA
Q. Tang, M. Zhang & H. Zhang
Spatial-and-temporal risk assessment of crops caused by flood in Northeast China
S. Zhao & Q. Zhang
A dynamic PD-HL model with various penalty parameters
T. Zhang, H. Zhao & X. Bai
The study of drought and its impact analysis for tourism in western Jilin Province
W. Cai
Study on social risk evaluation and mechanism of major projects
X. Zhang, Y. Xu, L. Lv & Y. Wang
The study of agricultural drought disaster risk early warning system
X. Liu, J. Zhang & D. Ma
Assessment of rainstorm risk in Chinese civil aviation system
X. Guo, X. Hu, H. Li & Z. Xu
The study of grassland fire early warning based on SVM
X. Liu, J. Zhang & Z. Tong
The GREEN model for comprehensive severity of QAR exceedance with associated event
X. Zhang, X. Luo & H. Chi
Improving urban master plan by fire risk assessment—in case of Shantou City, China
X. Huang, G. Zhai, Y. Liu & Z. He
Landslide susceptibility assessment at the Suichuan area (China) using support vector machine model
H. Hong, P. Biswajeet, D.T. Bui & C. Xu
Ratio bias and sensitivity to probability in individuals’ WTP for risk reduction of natural disasters
Z. He & G. Zhai
Example application of risk assessment technology based on acute poisoning accident dispersion simulation
D. Huang, Q. Zhang, M. Li & M. Liu
Assessment on spatial vulnerability of network systems under spatially local hazards
H. Li, X. Hu, X. Guo & Z. Xu
The study of public acceptance of nuclear power in China with quantitative model
J. Li, Y. Liu, Y. Yang & C. Fang
Disaster risk evaluation of old industrial buildings
Q. Wu, X. Wu, Y. Zong & D. Zheng
Risk and crisis communication about nuclear accidents: A study with psychological methods
Y. Yang, L. Jin, J. Li & C. Fang
Spatial distribution analyses of pre-earthquake and coseismic landslides related to the 2014 Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake of China
Y. Tian, C. Xu & J. Chen
Drought risks evaluation in different periods in low latitude plateau based on fuzzy information distribution theory
Y. Liu, G. Peng & N. Zhao
Evolution characteristics of droughts during winter wheat growth in Shandong province since 1960 based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
J. Zhao, Q. Zhang, Z. Song & W. Sun
Case study: Financial indicators of the Mafia in the Montreal municipality infrastructure
M.N. Maillette
A scenario puzzle method for dynamic regional disaster risk assessment
F. Zeng, C. Huang & S. Guo
Dip angle and dissimilar materials in the Longmen Shan: Insights from numerical models
Q. Yao, H. Xing, C. Xu & W. Zhang
Rainfall threshold analysis for the initiation of landslides in Sichuan Province of China
L. Shen, L. Liu, W. Yang, C. Xu & J. Wang
Landslides caused by the Mw 6.1 Ludian, China earthquake of August 3, 2014
C. Xu
Experimental study on evacuation behavior of crowds in emergency situation
W. Zhu, Y. Wang, Y. Ma, Y. Kong, X. Zhou & B. Du
Comparisons of methods of goodness of fit tests in hydrologic analysis
X. Zeng, D. Wang & J. Wu
Analysis of risk perception and decision-making behavior: An empirical case study of poultry industry
L. Xu, Q. Zhang, L. Zhao, S. Zhao, J. Zhang, Y. Li, W. Sun, S. Tao, J. Wu, Z. Song, F. Zhang & S. Song
A dynamic decision support system based on Geographical Information and Mobile Social Networks: A model for tsunami risk mitigation in Padang, Indonesia
F. Ai, L.K. Comfort & T. Znati
Analysis on mortgage risk of the right to use sea area in China
S. Liu, J. Zhang, W. Xu & M. Zhao
Analysis of old steel mill renovation project’s investment risk based on the real option of the BOT mode
Q. Wu, Y. Zong, X. Wu, T. Zhang & J. Liu
The index system of ecological risk assessment based on the industrialization development of Coal-Bed Methane
W. Sun, Y. Xu & X. Ren
Case study on snow disaster evaluation based on the directed and weighted complex networks
W. Zhu & Q. You
A case study of regional ecological risk assessment based on landscape structure
X. Liu, J. Dong, K. Zhong & J. Zhang
Research on an earthquake-induced landslide probability of occurrence model based on the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
J. Shang & J. Liu
A survey of recent research regarding risks to marine
W. Su & F. Zeng
A preliminary study on time characteristic of natural disaster risk
J. Guo, Z. Sijian & C. Huang
Risk assessment of disaster caused by heavy rainfall: A case study in Beijing
W. Cao, C. Huang & H. Zhao
Butterfly effect and medical risk management
F. Zhang, J. Kong & X. Hu
Assessment on the effectiveness of suppressing premixed fuel-air explosion by ultra-fine cold aerosol
C. Ren,Y. Zhang, X. Sun, J. Wang & J. Li
The role of NGOs in natural disaster governance: A case study on the One Foundation in Ya’an earthquake
G. Wu & M. Gao
Simulation of the rainfall-runoff process using HEC-HMS model in the Meghougha river basin in Tangier city (Northern Morocco)
K. Iliasse & H.A. Adil
Author index
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Editor(s)
Biography
Prof. Chongfu Huang, President of Society for Risk Analysis - China, Editor-in-Chief of Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, is a full professor of Beijing Normal University. He received his Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from Beijing Normal University in 1993. As an advisor, he served the Beijing Municipal Emergency Management Office to assess risks during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. His significant contributions to science involve the discovery of the principle of information diffusion shown in "Towards Efficient Fuzzy Information Processing" published by Springer in 2002. His most significant contribution to society is his establishing the Risk Analysis Council of the China Association for Disaster Prevention in 2004, which is the unique academic organization authorized by the Chinese government for studying all risk issues. His current research interests include internet of intelligences in risk analysis for online services, dynamic risk analysis, experimental riskology, fuzzy information processing, earthquakes and typhoons. As Mercator Professor, he worked at the University of Dortmund, Germany, during August 2000-August 2001. In recognition of his major national and international contributions to the discipline of risk analysis, the Society for Risk Analysis awarded him the 2014 Fellow Award.
Prof. Guofang Zhai is a full professor and Director of Urban Planning and Design, Deputy Dean of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University. He served as Secretary-General of the Society for Risk Analysis, China (SRA-China) from 2009 to 2013, and the Vice-Secretary-General of Risk Analysis Council, China Disaster Prevention Association (RAC) from 2008_2012. He got Bachelor Degree and Master Degree in Economic Geography and Urban Planning from Nanjing University in 1986 and 1989, respectively, and Master Degree and PhD in urban and regional planning from Tsukuba University, Japan in 1997 and 2000, respectively. Professor Zhai once worked at China Nanjing municipal government, Japan National Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), and Japan National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (NILIM). He has published more than 100 papers in leading academic journals including Risk Analysis, Journal of Risk Research, China Economic Review, and Journal of the American Water Resources Association. His current research interests include urban risk management, urban disaster prevention planning, urban development and planning, urban modeling and Japanese
urban planning.